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Old 07-29-2011, 11:13 AM   #1
Justin McCallon
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What Stat is going to correlate most with success?

There are a list of stats here:
http://games.crossfit.com/finals/compare

Let's add in height and weight.

What single attribute do you think is going to correlate the best with success (considering all athletes and not just the top 5 finishers)?

Will it be the same for the men and the women?

Thus far, I am in favor of the general idea of the WODs. Swimming and throwing especially, but also just breaking from the typical 12 or so CF Movements.


My guess: Usually I'm really big on the "crossfit comps hate tall people." If a 7'0 person needs to do 10 C&J's, he's doing a LOT more work than a 5'0 person and it's really hard to keep up. Given that, I think the tall people that made it through tend to be a little better as far as fitness is concerned than the shorter folks. So, since we're seeing stuff like a softball throw, a swim, and a run, the tall folks are not disadvantaged. My theory is that height is going to positively correlate with success more than anything else.

My second bet would be Helen time.

(Open/Regional finishes shouldn't count)
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Old 07-29-2011, 04:15 PM   #2
Peter Nelson
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Re: What Stat is going to correlate most with success?

i don't think height will correlate with success any more than weight will. It'll be a bell curve for both with the optimal being about 6 feet 185 or so I'm guessing. I'd say times on various metcons is the best indicator
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Old 07-30-2011, 06:05 AM   #3
Justin Z. Smith
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Re: What Stat is going to correlate most with success?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Justin McCallon View Post
There are a list of stats here:
http://games.crossfit.com/finals/compare

Let's add in height and weight.

What single attribute do you think is going to correlate the best with success (considering all athletes and not just the top 5 finishers)?

Will it be the same for the men and the women?

Thus far, I am in favor of the general idea of the WODs. Swimming and throwing especially, but also just breaking from the typical 12 or so CF Movements.


My guess: Usually I'm really big on the "crossfit comps hate tall people." If a 7'0 person needs to do 10 C&J's, he's doing a LOT more work than a 5'0 person and it's really hard to keep up. Given that, I think the tall people that made it through tend to be a little better as far as fitness is concerned than the shorter folks. So, since we're seeing stuff like a softball throw, a swim, and a run, the tall folks are not disadvantaged. My theory is that height is going to positively correlate with success more than anything else.

My second bet would be Helen time.

(Open/Regional finishes shouldn't count)
I would guess their squat weights.

Justin
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Old 07-30-2011, 08:00 AM   #4
Paul Coomans
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Re: What Stat is going to correlate most with success?

Crossfit is about being the best generalist and therefore it favors the most general physique.

James Fitzgerald 5'10"
Jason Khalipa 5'9"
Mikko Salo 5'8"
Graham Holmberg 5'11"

I really don't see how being significantly taller than those guys will help you in any way.
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Old 07-30-2011, 10:31 AM   #5
Justin McCallon
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Re: What Stat is going to correlate most with success?

I actually think the people built like Froning (medium build, a little filled out) have the best build.

So far it looks like my guess has been wrong (haven't run the numbers or anything). But, I doubt we'd actually get a bell curve because we're not taking from the whole of population. Let's greatly exaggerate things so I can explain what I was getting at.

Assume the online qualifier was ONLY who can do the most push-ups. This would obviously greatly favor the shorter folks. Now let's say the Regional qualifiers was only about who could do the most boydweight squats in 5 minutes. Another event that obviously favors shorter dudes. Now, let's say the "Championships" is ONLY doing a shotput throw. This event favors the taller dudes.

So, given an equal performance in the Online Qualifier/Regionals between a dude that's 6'3 and a dude that's 5'5, the taller dude should be the better athlete. Now, put in events that favor him, and he should be able to win.

Obviously the discrepancy between the qualifiers and the "championships" isn't near the degree I explained. Also, I think so far it looks like my guess was wrong. I think this is because I didn't factor in that (a) the tall folks (e.g., Spencer Hendell) only barely made it through. They might be outperforming their expectations based on Regional ranks, but they're still way behind people like Froning, and (b) the whole of events still isn't that much different for them.

Anyway, let's hear some other guesses before all the results come in.
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