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You are comparing a GUESS, to a scientifically proveable and testable number.

Counting only one side of the equation won't work. The calorie counting method requires counting both the calories in and the calories out and then seeing if the numbers are equal. It's easy to show that at least one side of the equation is a guess, if not both sides. That makes the whole concept of counting calories pseudoscience. It's only applicable in the most crude brute force scenarios which is not really science at all.
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Getting calorie counts from food is very specific and close to exact.

Really? How exact? Plus or minus what percentage?
Compare that percentage of error to a typical yearly consumption of 500,000 to 1,00,000 calories per year. Assuming that weight is simple matter of calories in vs. calories out, how accurate would you need to be in order to maintain a stable, healthy weight? Chew on that for a while and you'll see that weight maintanence couldn't possibly be a simple matter of calories in vs. calories out. Our weight would yoyo up
and down like crazy if that were the case. It doesn't. For the most part, bodyweight is either stable or increases at a relatively slow and steady rate (less than 1015 lbs. per year.)