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-   -   Your CrossFit Crystal Ball (http://board.crossfit.com/showthread.php?t=88083)

Scott Simmonds 12-14-2014 06:03 AM

Your CrossFit Crystal Ball
 
Think about your Box and those who compete with you in your market.

What does that market look like now?

What will it look like in 2 years? More boxes or fewer? Bigger or smaller?

Will some of the boxes there now be gone? What will the new boxes look like? Are there services not offered now that will be then?

How will what we know as CrossFit change? How should it change?

How will you change your own Box? What changes will be made operationally, in marketing, in programing, in the way you run your Box?

Sean Smith 12-15-2014 07:25 AM

Re: Your CrossFit Crystal Ball
 
Scott, you post some insightful things on these boards. I'm curious as to what your answers are to your own questions.

For me, in two years, there will be more CF gyms. In 5 years, there will be less. Bigger, more successful gyms, will start buying the CF gyms that have been around for 3+ years that aren't doing that great. You'll see more CF gyms like NorCal CrossFit and their style of running a business. Average people will no longer be able to open a CF gym because of this market. The only markets that will support a "boot-strapped" gym will be extremely small towns and cities that don't already have an existing CrossFit gym.

My two cents.

Joey Dussel 12-15-2014 08:47 AM

Re: Your CrossFit Crystal Ball
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean Smith (Post 1246211)
Scott, you post some insightful things on these boards. I'm curious as to what your answers are to your own questions.

For me, in two years, there will be more CF gyms. In 5 years, there will be less. Bigger, more successful gyms, will start buying the CF gyms that have been around for 3+ years that aren't doing that great. You'll see more CF gyms like NorCal CrossFit and their style of running a business. Average people will no longer be able to open a CF gym because of this market. The only markets that will support a "boot-strapped" gym will be extremely small towns and cities that don't already have an existing CrossFit gym.

My two cents.

Agreed, I want to hear from you, and learn why you are posing such questions.

There will be more CF gyms overall, but there will be a consolidation. More gyms will be owned by a single entity (NorCal style). Garage affiliates only in small towns. Crappy coaches / owners that survived or thrived DESPITE their lack of abilities will start to suffer, then will sell to companies / people who have an actual business plan. More CF gyms will start offering more "perks" like nice showers, childcare, services like that, until we have CF gyms with tanning beds and group exercise classes that are marketed as CF but are watered down version that is easier to coach is large groups with a minimally trained (i.e. inexpensive) trainer.

-Joey

Paul Glezer 12-15-2014 12:15 PM

Re: Your CrossFit Crystal Ball
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Joey Dussel (Post 1246224)
Agreed, I want to hear from you, and learn why you are posing such questions.

Call me a cynic, but looks like a bit of thought promoting ideas for the group and some plain old promotion of his own brand & site. boxbossmentor.com from the signature was registered in the end of Nov 2014 according to records, and that is about the same time that he joined. If i am wrong, my apologies.

Scott Simmonds 12-15-2014 07:30 PM

Re: Your CrossFit Crystal Ball
 
I pose questions to spark discussion on topics that interest me.

I'm interested in what the CF community thinks. Like most here, I'm looking to learn.

I have some ideas on the future of CF but I wanted to hear what people with more info than I line up first.

In short, I think CF is going to see an accelerating rate of change - the changes in the last 3 years times ten. Its going to be a wild ride.

The number of boxes will increase. Cities with 5 boxes will have 10 or 20.

The competition will do what competition always does - encourage innovation and value to the customer. The marketplace will get rid of the marginal. Everyone will have to up their game. Many current affiliates will not be able to compete - others will thrive and grow.

I dont think CF will just be big boxes (though there will be some mega operations - huge boxes with many locations.) Garage and Small Boxes can do very well - they will have to be superb at meeting the needs of their market. I think there will always be a place for the "outlaw" style that many affiliates exude - it is a part of the CF DNA.

Chime in.

Steven Thunander 12-15-2014 08:02 PM

Re: Your CrossFit Crystal Ball
 
Here's what I see coming in five years in larger markets
1. The specialized CrossFit gym. There will be gyms that cater only to the elite athletes and those with experience. There will also be gyms that cater only to beginners and "feed" the elite gyms. This could be a seperate facility or both within one gym facility, but different portions of the facility (see #2 and #3). Rogue Fitness Barbell Club is an example of an elite gym that does not allow beginners in, but their CF Gym (CrossFit Grandview) does.
2. Larger, more complex gym setups with top end equipment. Bearing bars, power bars, elite plates, heavy racks, ect. And warehouse sized setups where 3-4 classes can take place.
3. "Barbell Clubs", places where open gym and Oly/Powerlfting take place, will open within these larger boxes for those looking for that environment, as well as for those who can't fit the classes in. Again, these could be within the same gym (Ec San Francisco Crossfit or Brew City CrossFit), or in seperate facilities (Grandview Crossfit, Grandview Barbell Club)
4. Start up gyms will have to innovate and target beginners with good training and customer service. It will not be sufficient to just be a CrossFit Gym anymore. They will also have to pfiler clients from other boxes when the market is oversaturated.
5. More personal training and tailored programming.
6. You will see markets in areas without many gyms but large populations have many more gyms open up.

Rolando Garcia 12-15-2014 10:07 PM

Re: Your CrossFit Crystal Ball
 
The is an interesting forum. I don't own, matter of fact built/used a garage gym till 2 years ago when someone finally opened a box up. I honestly wonder how much longer this box will stay open(years?) since Crossfit price vs regular gym price(in this town) is very lopsided. So if these answers above become true, I can't help but think of how these decisions will affect the small town boxes due to monthly membership prices being high (due to affiliation cost).

Interesting read.

Shawn M Wilson 12-16-2014 02:04 PM

Re: Your CrossFit Crystal Ball
 
I live in a small town which currently has 6-7 boxes within a 15 mile radius.

There was originally one, then the coaches left years back and formed their own.

Over time another coach from the first location opened his own box plus a variety of others have opened their own. 4 x training facilities are also in gyms in our town too. 4 boxes have shut down over the last 2-3 years (still have 6-7 open).

One "box" owns/affiliates/whatever 3 boxes (2 which are close and one was one of the boxes that closed/sold out).

Price ranges from 125$ a month unlimited to 225$ a month limited...

It still amazes me how so many boxes are here and still survive. Some make good money while others scrape by only because of their faithful few.

Having traveled and seen other boxes and worked out at some I amazed many are still in business and have not been sued by injured patrons.

The ones that do well combining community, solid coaching, and great programming will continue to grow and succeed while those who do not will either sell off or just close their doors.

I won't call crossfit a fad but even this board reflects the nature of our "crossfit" life. It swells right before, during and a little after the open/finals and goes down during the rest of the time.

Many have realized that crossfit can meet certain goals but that it has to be modified or supplemented heavily to reach other certain goals. It has also opened the eyes of many to powerlifting and Olympic lifting. These individuals will "enjoy" crossfit to an extent but will specialize in the others because they like them more.

So in 5 years crossfit will still be here. There will be a few main bigger boxes and some smaller boxes. There will be less as they continue to have to spend $$ for the affiliation. I have known many people who would open up a "box" if they didn't simply have to spend $$ every year just to use the crossfit name.

I have seen some "cave man" boxes open up and do well, saving money and still drawing a crowd while using a large chunk of the crossfit teaching and beliefs.


In order for crossfit to continue a solid upwards approach and success for boxes and affiliates, corporate might need to rethink what they are doing to have a constant presence in society and how to help the boxes succeed and thrive to help promote the crossfit name.

Rolando Garcia 12-16-2014 08:10 PM

Re: Your CrossFit Crystal Ball
 
Here it comes down to $$. People will disappear and thanks to social media these same MIAs will appear in photo ops at other gyms ($30 /month). So like I say the I worry that there will be less, due to building fees (rent, utilities) insurance and of course the high affiliate cost.

Steve Loeding 12-16-2014 09:45 PM

Re: Your CrossFit Crystal Ball
 
I think you will see fewer gyms opening up in 5 years.

Many smaller ones will close due to....
1. not making enough to live on
2. doing it as a side biz while working full time, realizing the time commitment does not equal the satisfaction.
3. selling to bigger, better run gyms
4. becoming "affiliated" with the bigger gyms

There will be more people working out in their garages or homes.

The big box gyms will start CF classes cheaper than the CF only boxes.

I see the number of CF'ers getting higher every year - but again some will be doing it at home, in a big box gym, etc


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