CrossFit Discussion Board  

Go Back   CrossFit Discussion Board > CrossFit Forum > Competitions
CrossFit Home Forum Site Rules CrossFit FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Competitions Competitions, contests & challenges

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 07-01-2010, 04:52 AM   #21
David Meverden
Member David Meverden is offline
 
David Meverden's Avatar
 
Profile:
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Charleston  SC
Posts: 2,801
Re: 2010 Games winner guessing

I'm surprised you guys are putting Spealler so high. He is amazing, but even if he's been working on strength, how strong can he be? The sheet lists him as 400# deadlift, 335# backsquat. Anyone have him pegged at higher numbers? Unless this years games suddenly have less heavy work than the last couple I just don't think that can cut it. It's awfully hard competing against people who can deadlift 100 more pounds than you can.

I, personnel, just can't see anyone taking Mikko. He is the whole package. He's one of the fastest runners on there and one of the strongest, not to mention well adapted to back to back to back to back to back workouts. But you never know until they actually throw down, especially with the workouts being an unknown quantity. If there is no long run I could definitely see Orlando taking it.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2010, 03:32 PM   #22
Jesse Gray
Affiliate Jesse Gray is offline
 
Profile:
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Davis  CA
Posts: 545
Re: 2010 Games winner guessing

1. Rob Orlando
2. Mikko Salo
3. Neil Maddox
4. Tommy Hackenbruck
5. Jason Kahlipa
6. Peter Egyed
7. Ben Smith
8. Chris Spealler


I think Orlando is going to surprise a lot of people this year, some of the things he's done and the competitive instinct he possess could put him over the edge. Also, look out for Neil Maddox, this year's dark horse, already won nor-cal sectionals and second (I think, maybe third) at so-cal regionals.
__________________
My Box!
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2010, 06:21 PM   #23
Lincoln Brigham
Member Lincoln Brigham is offline
 
Lincoln Brigham's Avatar
 
Profile:
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Kirkland  WA
Posts: 3,987
Re: 2010 Games winner guessing

The only model that can reliably predict the winners of the Games would have to start with the assumption that the events in the Games themselves can be reliably predicted also. No one athlete can truly excel at all possible events. Therefore the results of the Games will be significantly influenced by the mix and scoring of the events chosen and not just the caliber of the athletes who enter.

Throw in a swimming event - an oft-discussed subject in the Crossfit Journal and an extremely functional movement given that three quarters of the planet is covered in water - and all predictions fly out the window. Or what would happen if instead of C2 rowers they used real boats, like the old Superstars competitions used to do? What if there was a bicycling event? How many military foks would disagree that a 15 mile hike with a ruck sack is a functional test of fitness? They do that in the Rangers competition. How about a test of max power such as the shot put? What would happen to the results then?

Even a small change like making the trail run in last year's Games the last event instead of the first would have shaken up the results considerably. Just look how Jason Khalipa's scoring in that event would have gone from nearly dead last among all competitors to top 20. Josh Everett would have also placed much, much higher. If the deadlift event had been first and the trail event second there would have been more weight on the bars for the deadlift and there wouldn't have been a bunch of folks tied for first and second place. And so on.

If the results of the Games ever become as predictable as something like, for example, the decathalon then the organizers of the Games will have failed to some degree in their selection of events. At that point the Games will have become a test of the Crossfit Specialist and not a true test of the broadest and most general fitness possible.

Last edited by Lincoln Brigham : 07-01-2010 at 06:27 PM.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2010, 06:29 PM   #24
Jason R O'Dell
Banned Jason R O'Dell is offline
 
Profile:
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Moore  OK
Posts: 3,396
Re: 2010 Games winner guessing

I'm just sad Jeremy Thiel didn't make it this year. He's my CF man-crush! lol
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2010, 06:34 PM   #25
Lincoln Brigham
Member Lincoln Brigham is offline
 
Lincoln Brigham's Avatar
 
Profile:
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Kirkland  WA
Posts: 3,987
Re: 2010 Games winner guessing

Here's my prediction: at least one person from everyone's Top 10 list won't get anywhere near the top 30.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2010, 07:08 PM   #26
J. Thomas Boss
Member J. Thomas Boss is offline
 
Profile:
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Washington  DC
Posts: 168
Re: 2010 Games winner guessing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lincoln Brigham View Post
Here's my prediction: at least one person from everyone's Top 10 list won't get anywhere near the top 30.
I totally agree. One of the charming nuances of an event that advertises readiness for "the unknown and unknowable" as the linchpin of company doctrine is that anything can happen and absolutely nothing can be supposed. Forget about the main site WODs showing up at the Games...if a stake-hammering contest can qualify as "CrossFit" and make it onto the schedule, then it's a wide-open contest and virtually any activity can be counted as "CrossFit" if it's done with enough intensity.

Again, another example of a charming nuance of this wonderful community
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-02-2010, 07:31 AM   #27
Lewis Dunn
Member Lewis Dunn is offline
 
Profile:
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Vancouver  WA
Posts: 258
Re: 2010 Games winner guessing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lincoln Brigham View Post
Therefore the results of the Games will be significantly influenced by the mix and scoring of the events chosen and not just the caliber of the athletes who enter.
………
If the results of the Games ever become as predictable as something like, for example, the decathalon then the organizers of the Games will have failed to some degree in their selection of events. At that point the Games will have become a test of the Crossfit Specialist and not a true test of the broadest and most general fitness possible.
I agree with most of what Lincoln said, but don’t think “significantly influenced by the mix and scoring of the events chosen” is strong enough. I’d say “completely influenced.” Maybe if the Games lasted a week or so, and you had time compete in a broader array of unknown events, you could approach that ”true test of the broadest and most general fitness possible.” But short of that, I actually think it would be better to pre-announce a large hopper of tests, maybe 30 or so, and then randomly pull however many fit into the 3 days of the Games. Pre-announcing the list of possibilities does allow some specialized training, but with a large enough list, it’s hard to really focus on any one thing. It doesn’t solve all the problems, but it does at least preclude the incredible skewing that can take place when you toss in something like stake pounding. I know this is supposed to be about the unknown, whatever life throws at you, etc., but as soon as you toss in an oddball event like that (throwing a ball for distance, shooting a basketball, throwing darts, walking a balance beam, etc.) the overall results of the Games are changed immediately.

In any case, whatever events are actually chosen for the Games is incredibly influential on deciding who will win. Lincoln’s examples are right on. Can Mikko swim? A 15-mile hike is a few hours. Do any of these folks ever work that long?. A “true test” would be one where the same people win no matter what the random events are. That day will never come.

I also think, as others have said, that the top ten will be fairly strongly represented by unknowns, and that will continue to be the case, though decreasingly so, over the next several years. Sooner or later, anyone who cracks the upper echelon will have had to have been doing this for a while, but that time hasn’t arrived yet.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2010, 09:45 AM   #28
Lincoln Brigham
Member Lincoln Brigham is offline
 
Lincoln Brigham's Avatar
 
Profile:
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Kirkland  WA
Posts: 3,987
Re: 2010 Games winner guessing

I'm pretty sure Mikko the Rescue Diver can swim a little bit!

There are a whole passel of logistical problems in implementing a true test of general physical prepardness. Last year's Games tested everything under a condition of general fatigue. Performance while fatigued is certainly a valid variable to test, but testing under a condition of rest is also valid. It's tough to do both in one weekend.

In fact, I would say the majority of traditional tests of fitness are performed with the athlete in a fully rested state. Weightlifting, powerlifting, throwing events, track & field, Highland games, Lumberjack comps, etc. all give the athlete as much opportunity as possible to perform while fully rested for max performance.

Another difficult to test-for-parameter is a random date of test. In other words, the no-advance-notice test. Everyone knows the date of the Games a year in advance, so every athlete can time their peak fitness for that date. But what if Greg Glassman showed up at your door unexpectedly in November and pulled out a hopper event? Life is full of random, unexpected tests of fitness. The classic example is military life on the front lines - 99% boredom and 1% max intensity. Since the dawn of civilization soldiers have been forced to perform extreme acts of physical exertion with no advance notice. Those who failed, died. In great numbers. It's would be a valid parameter to test for, even if it is logistically impossible.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2010, 01:21 PM   #29
Brent Eno
Member Brent Eno is offline
 
Brent Eno's Avatar
 
Profile:
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Aiken  SC
Posts: 404
Re: 2010 Games winner guessing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lincoln Brigham View Post
I'm pretty sure Mikko the Rescue Diver can swim a little bit!

There are a whole passel of logistical problems in implementing a true test of general physical prepardness. Last year's Games tested everything under a condition of general fatigue. Performance while fatigued is certainly a valid variable to test, but testing under a condition of rest is also valid. It's tough to do both in one weekend.

In fact, I would say the majority of traditional tests of fitness are performed with the athlete in a fully rested state. Weightlifting, powerlifting, throwing events, track & field, Highland games, Lumberjack comps, etc. all give the athlete as much opportunity as possible to perform while fully rested for max performance.

Another difficult to test-for-parameter is a random date of test. In other words, the no-advance-notice test. Everyone knows the date of the Games a year in advance, so every athlete can time their peak fitness for that date. But what if Greg Glassman showed up at your door unexpectedly in November and pulled out a hopper event? Life is full of random, unexpected tests of fitness. The classic example is military life on the front lines - 99% boredom and 1% max intensity. Since the dawn of civilization soldiers have been forced to perform extreme acts of physical exertion with no advance notice. Those who failed, died. In great numbers. It's would be a valid parameter to test for, even if it is logistically impossible.
Interesting ideas. How about this? The night before the games are scheduled to start, get a few BUD/S instructors to wake up every competitor in their hotel rooms at 2 am with AR-15's(firing blanks, of course). They then have 20 minutes to make it to the water for a 2 mile open-ocean swim.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2010, 03:48 PM   #30
Shane Skowron
Member Shane Skowron is offline
 
Profile:
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Queens  NY
Posts: 3,800
Re: 2010 Games winner guessing

Can't believe nobody's mentioned Deric Maruquin. Never heard of him but his stats are insane - 3x bw deadlift, 52s quarter, 18:30 5k, 2.7x bw squat.
  Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Catalyst Games 2010 Chris Cooper Competitions 0 04-28-2010 11:38 AM
If you qualified for the 2010 CF games... Brent Eno Fitness 12 02-01-2010 03:00 PM
Garage Games 2010 Donovan Conrad Competitions 13 01-22-2010 06:31 PM
Crossfit Games 2010 in CA Dasha Eudoxia Baez Competitions 0 04-27-2009 10:22 AM
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner Wendy Nelson Nutrition 21 01-22-2009 08:27 PM


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 03:00 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
CrossFit is a registered trademark of CrossFit Inc.