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Old 12-09-2012, 02:55 PM   #1311
Luke Seubert
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Re: PaleoZone vs Morbid Obesity: An Odyssey

Realistic Expectations For Muscle Mass Gains and Final Bodyweight?
Patrick Haskell commented recently in this Workout Log that once I am done losing the fat, that I can expect my final bodyweight numbers to be higher than what I have been projecting recently in my Sunday Weekly LBM Update posts. Patrick is right. This raises an interesting question - what are my realistic expectations for lean body mass increases and eventual bodyweight? Let's find out!

Me So Lazy - Let Lyle Do The Work!
The article linked below by Lyle McDonald is the single best resource I have ever read on this matter. Detailed, comprehensive, and scientifically sound - it provides hard evidence and valid methods for estimating natural maximum muscular potential. That is, what is the maximum Lean Body Mass one could expect to develop as a bodybuilder who does NOT use steroids and other illegal and/or dangerous drugs:Let Me Be Clear - I Am Not At ALL Interested In Bodybuilding - Neither Natural Nor Roided Up!
I know I am referring to a LOT of bodybuilding information and standards in this post. I am not doing this because I am interested in pursuing bodybuilding once I lose the fat. Quite the contrary. I despise bodybuilding culture and I consider bodybuilders to suffer from the male equivalent of anorexia - an obsession with a bizarrely exaggerated body image pursued to an extreme and to the gross detriment of one's health and even life. To me, male bodybuilders are even more sad and pathetic than all those idiot teenage girls who starve and puke themselves into skeletal stick insects.

All that said, bodybuilders know more about achieving maximum genetic potential muscle mass than anybody else, especially the natural bodybuilders who do not use steroids or other dangerous and/or illegal drugs. So, while I won't ever follow a bodybuilder diet and training regimen, I can use the information they have developed to figure out a realistic goal for myself in building up my Lean Body Mass.

Thus, my reasonable LBM goal should fall something well short of the best that natural bodybuilders can expect to achieve. In figuring out what my Max Potential LBM is and then subtracting some reasonable amount from it, I can set up a realistic and achievable though tough goal for myself, one in accord with my particular fitness and athletic ambitions.

Where Am I Now? Where Do I Project To Be?
Here are my numbers from today's Weekly LBM update, with an estimated BFC of 26.5%:
  • Bodyweight: 235 lbs
  • Lean Body Mass: 173 lbs
  • Fat Body Mass: 62 lbs
Bear in mind, that my BFC estimation methods are crude. I actually don't pay so much attention to the number itself, but rather to the changes in the number over time. While my BFC estimate might be off, the changes in BFC over time are likely pretty close to reality. For example, while I am not at all sure that my BFC is actually 26.5%, I am quite confident that I have lost something close to 2.7% off my BFC over the past nine weeks, whatever the actual BFC number might be.

Because my BFC estimate might be off, any future projections of my LBM based upon current BFC might well be off. So take the following numbers with the same sizable grain of salt that I do. (That said, these numbers wind up corresponding very closely to a reasonable final LBM number when correlated with the information and projections from the McDonald article linked above.)

Based upon an estimated 24.1% LBM-to-Bodyweight Loss Ratio (my almost two-year estimated average), here is how my Bodyweight, LBM, and FBM project out at 10% BFC:

10% BFC
  • Bodyweight: 176 lbs
  • Lean Body Mass: 159 lbs
  • Fat Body Mass: 18 lbs
By the way, if you took the time to carefully read that Lyle McDonald article linked above, you'll note that even at a light and wimpy 176 pounds of Bodyweight at 10% BFC, I project out to be a pretty big guy compared to most natural bodybuilders. McDonald points out that most of them compete at around 165 pounds of Bodyweight, with very, very few ever going over 200 pounds.

Given that I am quite a bit taller than most men though medium-framed; and will be carrying more body fat than any competitive bodybuilder; even with the less-than-max LBM gains of my strength training regimen - I will still wind up a very large dude, i.e. a fine rugby forward

What Is My Max Potential LBM?
The McDonald article provides four different mathematical models for projecting maximum natural potential Lean Body Mass - McDonald, Aragon, Butt, and Berkhan. I programmed all of these models into a spreadsheet using all my current metrics, as well as the 159 pound final LBM projection detailed above. (See the attached file for a copy of this spreadsheet.)

Here are the average Max Potential LBM results for each model using my metrics and criteria:
  • McDonald - 201 lbs
  • Aragon - 204 lbs
  • Butt - 198 lbs
  • Berkhan - 195 lbs
When I averaged them all together, my projected Max LBM came out to 199.57 pounds. Guess what? I think 200 pounds is not only a very simple and well-rounded number, but also a very reasonable number for my Max Potential LBM.

What Will Inhibit and What Will Promote My LBM Gains?
Let's take a look at the factors working against and in favor of my ability to build LBM once I am done losing the fat.

Factors Working Against Significant LBM Gains
  • Age - At 47 years of age, my ability to gain a lot of muscle is significantly less than that of a younger man.
  • Medium Frame Size - While I am fairly tall at 6' 2 3/4", I have a medium frame not a large frame, which limits the amount of muscle I can gain.
  • Refusal To Engage in Bodybuilding - By NOT following a bodybuilding regimen, I will not be able to gain as much muscle. Resistance training focused on strength and power produces less LBM gain than resistance training specifically targeted at adding muscle mass.
  • Conditioning Exercise - In pursuing well-balanced fitness, I will be doing a lot of aerobic conditioning, MetCon work, finishers, and HIIT. This sort of exercise can inhibit sizable muscle mass gains.
Factors Working In Favor of Significant LBM Gains
  • Endomorphic Body Type - Big buys, endomorphs like me, tend to be easy gainers when it comes to building muscle mass.
  • Willpower, Consistency & Confidence - In losing 193 pounds to date in pursuit of excellent physical fitness, I have developed a lot of willpower, consistency, and confidence. These qualities will carry over and serve me very well in training to gain a reasonable amount of muscle mass.
  • Superior Nutritional Discipline - Superior nutrition is the foundation upon which superior physical fitness is built. I am very good at nutritional discipline and correct knowledge.
  • Rest, Recovery & Stress Reduction - Along with nutrition, these factors are critical to effective strength training, and I have them well in hand. Most importantly, I know the signs and perils of over-exercise, and the importance of rest and recovery.
  • Smart Exercise Program Design - Having done a lot of research into the most effective strength training protocols, I will be able to put together a smart training regimen. Thank you Rippetoe, Enamait, et al!
  • Scientifically Proven, Safe & Legal Supplementation - In support of a smart, consistent and tough exercise program, I have researched and developed a sensible supplementation regimen which includes high quality fish oil, vitamins and minerals, joint health supplements, and muscle building supplements such as BCAA, creatine, HMB, and beta-alanine. This, coupled with modest and sensible pre- and post- workout meals should prove an effective aid to all the other work and good nutrition.
A Realistic Long-Term LBM Goal
So, 200 pounds is the maximum potential LBM I could ever hope to achieve. Since I'll never get into bodybuilding, I'll never achieve 200 pounds of Lean Body Mass. I will start somewhere roughly around about 159 LBM as projected earlier, and wind up at something significantly less than 200 pounds of LBM. But where?

Taking into account the factors I listed above, as well as the information found in the McDonald article which details reasonable muscle mass gain rates; I believe that a challenging and tough yet achievable goal for me is around 75% of my Max Potential LBM gain.

With a Max Potential LBM of 200 pounds, and a possible beginning LBM of 159 pounds, the most I could hope to gain is 41 pounds of LBM. 75% of 41 pounds is 30.75 pounds, which I round down to 30 pounds. When added to that guesstimated beginning LBM of 159, I get an LBM of 189 pounds.

As for the time factor, the McDonald and Aragon models yield 30 pound minimum gains in LBM with two years of training. Because I have a number of factors working against me with respect to muscle mass gains, I think it makes sense to kick that up to three years.

So, when the time comes, after all the fat loss is done and over with, my motto will be: Thirty In Three Or Bust!

Well, that or something in the high 180's, whichever is closest. I'll decide the final number once I get a high quality BFC measurement just before beginning.

Projected Bodyweight Range At 189 Pounds of LBM
As the table below reveals, I will be quite the big boy at 189 pounds of LBM, ranging from 210 to 235 pounds of bodyweight. So Patrick was indeed quite correct when he stated that my eventual bodyweight should be considerably higher than my current projections show.
  • Bodyweight at 10% BFC: 210 lbs
  • Bodyweight at 12.5% BFC: 228 lbs
  • Bodyweight at 15% BFC: 235 lbs
Attached Files
File Type: email Reasonable_LBM_Gain_Projections.xls (11.0 KB, 139 views)
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:39 PM   #1312
Luke Seubert
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Re: PaleoZone vs Morbid Obesity: An Odyssey

Doh! Correcting The Projected Bodyweight and Spreadsheet
I goofed up the spreadsheet and some of the projections from my last post. Here is the updated information and corrected spreadsheet...

Projected Bodyweight Range At 189 Pounds of LBM
As the table below reveals, I will be quite the big boy at 189 pounds of LBM, ranging from 210 to 222 pounds of bodyweight. So Patrick was indeed quite correct when he stated that my eventual bodyweight should be considerably higher than my current projections show.
  • Bodyweight at 10% BFC: 210 lbs
  • Bodyweight at 12.5% BFC: 216 lbs
  • Bodyweight at 15% BFC: 222 lbs
Attached Files
File Type: email Corrected_Reasonable_LBM_Gain_Projections.xls (11.0 KB, 159 views)
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Old 12-10-2012, 07:51 AM   #1313
Luke Seubert
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Re: PaleoZone vs Morbid Obesity: An Odyssey

Monday Weekly Body Fat Composition Update
  • Date: December 10, 2012

BFC Average 2 Weeks Ago: 26.1%
BFC Average 1 Week Ago: 25.5%
Current BFC Average: 25.7%
Beginning Date for BFC - May 4, 2011 - BFC Average Then: 44.6%
Total BFC Average Lost to Date: 18.9%

Comments
This is the last post of the "Monday Weekly Body Fat Composition Update". While I will still track and post BFC information, it will take a different form and will be part of a single, comprehensive post made each Sunday. Among other things, I will drop posting raw Omron and Omron Average numbers. Instead, I will switch to my composite BFC number, which averages together my Omron BFC number with the number from my Tape Measure & Formula BFC metric. Anyway, on to this weeks results.....

Ugh! Not happy results. Omron BFC Average went up 0.2% from 25.5% to 25.7%. However, these results need to be taken with a big grain of salt because they are comparing apples and oranges. Last week, I was still carbed up and carrying plenty of glycogen and water. As of today, I am well into ketosis having shed about 10 pounds of weight, most of that retained water. When this happens, my Omron throws skewed results. Since I have seen nice drops in my waist measurement, right now, I think the Omron is off a little bit.

When I drop weight quickly the Omron lags behind, usually showing stable BFC numbers while the weight changes. Once the weight loss rate slows up considerably, the Omron readings catch up by then dropping off quickly. If that pattern holds up in this case, I should see significant Omron declines within the next few days. If not, I am losing too much muscle mass and I might have to tweak the diet a bit.

I plan to do some strength training workouts this week to encourage this possibility, along with the usual aerobic work.

Omron BFC Readings and Average For The Past Two Weeks
The BFC Average listed below is a simple 6 day moving average. It tends to overstate current BFC slightly as it lags behind the real data, but it smooths out erratic BFC readings and shows the actual BFC rate of change over time. Readers curious to know more about how to effectively use an Omron or any other bioelectrical impedance body fat composition meter should read my previous post, "How to Get Semi-Useful Body Fat Composition Data Out of a Bioelectrical Impedance Analyzer" (WFS).


__Date___BFC Reading__BFC Average
11/26/12_____26.0%_____26.1%
11/27/12_____25.5%_____26.1%
11/28/12_____25.6%_____26.0%
11/29/12_____25.5%_____25.9%
11/30/12_____25.5%_____25.8%
12/01/12_____25.1%_____25.6%
12/02/12_____25.4%_____25.5%
12/03/12_____25.8%_____25.5%
12/04/12_____25.5%_____25.5%
12/05/12_____26.2%_____25.6%
12/06/12_____25.9%_____25.6%
12/07/12_____25.8%_____25.7%
12/08/12_____25.6%_____25.7%
12/09/12_____25.5%_____25.8%
12/10/12_____25.6%_____25.7%
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Old 12-10-2012, 09:00 AM   #1314
Arturo Garcia
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Re: PaleoZone vs Morbid Obesity: An Odyssey

Who cares what your LBM will end up at? Don't worry about that stuff. Just get as lean as you can while being happy.

Trust me, even without working out in "bodybuilding fashion" you still have quite a bit of room for muscle gain. Your strength numbers and your arm size (since you post these metrics often) give it away, you're still closer to novice than intermediate, I think. So you''ll gain some mass once you set out to do so, even if the goal isn't bodybuilding!

I see almost 200# lost.... that is awesome!! So keep it up. I check this every few days but don't always post a reply. But still checking on ya.
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Old 12-10-2012, 09:28 AM   #1315
Luke Seubert
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Re: PaleoZone vs Morbid Obesity: An Odyssey

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arturo Garcia View Post
Who cares what your LBM will end up at? Don't worry about that stuff. Just get as lean as you can while being happy.
Oh, but you know me Arturo - I just gotta play with those numbers.

It's my own odd little way of maintaining motivation and discipline. It's not for everyone, but for me it works well.

My recent Reasonable Projected LBM Gains post also provides a bit of psychological self-comfort. Parts of my upper torso have really leaned out. My arms, neck, and shoulders are almost scrawny, as you have noticed from my measurements. The tendons around my neck and upper back stand out in relief, as do the bones in my clavicle and shoulders. So it is nice to know that someday I'll be filling in all that kinda-skeletal void with some muscle.

Remember, Arturo - I have been very fat virtually all of my life. Seeing myself actually leaned out in some areas is quite the shock.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arturo Garcia View Post
Trust me, even without working out in "bodybuilding fashion" you still have quite a bit of room for muscle gain. Your strength numbers and your arm size (since you post these metrics often) give it away, you're still closer to novice than intermediate, I think. So you''ll gain some mass once you set out to do so, even if the goal isn't bodybuilding!
I completely agree that I still qualify as a novice lifter, despite doing some progressive lifting over the past almost two years. The purpose of that lifting was to slow down LBM loss rates and provoke beneficial fat-burning hormonal responses. This is very different from resistance training intended to build strength, power, endurance, mass, etc. Given this non-standard and intermittant lifting regimen, I think I qualify as novice lifter when it comes to more conventional strength training.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arturo Garcia View Post
I see almost 200# lost.... that is awesome!! So keep it up. I check this every few days but don't always post a reply. But still checking on ya.
As of yesterday and today, my Bodyweight is 230.6, which represents 195.0 pounds lost. So yes, getting closer to the big 200!

While I have dropped a lot of weight very quickly this past week, my loss rates in the immediate future are going to slow up. While I am holding protein and carb intake levels steady, I am bumping up the fat which will slow my fat loss rates slightly. I have wrung out about all the water loss I can, so the loss rates should be steady from here on out. Steady-state ketosis is going to cause the further weight loss. Happily, this also means real fat loss, not just water and fat loss. (And yeah, a bit of muscle too. )
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Old 12-10-2012, 04:51 PM   #1316
Luke Seubert
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Re: PaleoZone vs Morbid Obesity: An Odyssey

WOD - Walking Day
  • Date: December 10, 2012
Conditions
  • Temperature: 65 F
  • Windchill: 65 F
  • Humidity: 84%
Comments
This turned out to be a pretty strong workout, much to my surprise. I came within 17 seconds of setting a new PR without even trying to do anything like. I realized about halfway through what a strong pace I had set, and that I was within striking distance. I picked it up a little bit and actually gained almost a minute on the 2nd half of the course.

While I didn't set a new PR, I am still pretty proud of this 43:14 mark. I walked almost the entire course, and only jogged a few bits of the final flat. Back when I set this PR I was doing quite a bit more jogging than that, so my walking pace has definitely picked up.

Also, my energy levels aren't quite at their peak these days. Last week was a very hardcore PSMF induction phase, with generous protein, but very little fat or carbs, and not many calories at all. I had to do it to get back into a weight loss groove. But it comes at the expense of energy levels. Still, somehow, I had some pretty good giddy-up! today, so I must be doing something right. (Actually, I ate a bunch of sunflower seeds last night, and extra food and calories today, so I think that helped quite a bit.

Walk - 3.1 Flat and Hilly Miles - 5k (Current PR - 42:58 @ 125 BPM on 11/21/12, 4.33 MPH)
  • Time: 43:14
  • Heart Rate: 136 BPM
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Old 12-11-2012, 04:57 AM   #1317
Luke Seubert
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Re: PaleoZone vs Morbid Obesity: An Odyssey

Tuesday Tunage
Words fail me....(Oh, yeah, uh.... silly but technically NWFS)
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Old 12-11-2012, 07:42 PM   #1318
Luke Seubert
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Re: PaleoZone vs Morbid Obesity: An Odyssey

WOD - Squats + Upper Body Routine E

Date: December 11, 2012

Conditions
  • Indoors
Comments
This was my first strength training workout in quite a while. With my back feeling much better, I reintroduced squats albeit at reduced weights and sets. I did kick up the reps to 8 instead of 5 though. My back felt fine throughout, though I could sense weakness. I made sure I had a good Valsalva maneuver and kept my lumber spine in a tight, neutral alignment. All went well, and while the weight was light, it was a good way to get back into the swing of things.

The rest of the workout was Upper Body Routine E, and all went likewise well with these exercises. I did scale back some weights/reps here and there from my previous work, but I should be able to ramp all of that back up fairly quickly.

Warmup
  • 2.0 Mile Walk
Total Workout Duration
  • 83 minutes
Barbell Low Back Squat
  • Warmup Set - 8x50
    • Rest Minutes - n/a
  • Warmup Set - 8x70
    • Rest Minutes - n/a
  • Warmup Set - 8x90
    • Rest Minutes - 4
  • Work Set - 8x110
    • Rest Minutes - 5
  • Work Set - 8x110
Single Dumbbell Incline Pullover
  • Pullover - Warmup Set - 5x7.5
    • Rest Minutes - n/a
  • Pullover - Warmup Set - 5x10
    • Rest Minutes - n/a
  • Pullover - Warmup Set - 3x12.5
    • Rest Minutes - n/a
  • Pullover - Warmup Set - 2x15
    • Rest Minutes - 3
  • Pullover - Work Set - 3x17.5
    • Rest Minutes - 3
  • Pullover - Work Set - 3x17.5
    • Rest Minutes - 3
  • Pullover - Work Set - 3x17.5
Tube Assisted Ring Dips - Blk-Blu-Ylw Tubes
  • Dip Repetitions - 5
    • Rest Minutes - 3
  • Dip Repetitions - 5
    • Rest Minutes - 4
  • Dip Repetitions - 5
Tubing Assisted Pullups - Blk-Blu-Ylw Tubes
  • Pullup Repetitions - 8
    • Rest Minutes - 4
  • Pullup Repetitions - 8
    • Rest Minutes - 5
  • Pullup Repetitions - 8
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Old 12-12-2012, 07:30 AM   #1319
Luke Seubert
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Re: PaleoZone vs Morbid Obesity: An Odyssey

Wednesday Weekly Trend and Bodyweight Update

Date: December 12, 2012

Today is the end of Week 84 of my fat loss regimen.

Last Week's Bodyweight Trend: 241.5 lbs
This Week's Bodyweight Trend: 236.7 lbs
Last Week's Bodyweight: 241.6 lbs
This Week's Bodyweight: 230.6 lbs
Beginning Date for Bodyweight Measurements - May 4, 2011 - Bodyweight: 425.6 lbs
Total Bodyweight Trend Lost to Date: 188.9 lbs
Total Bodyweight Lost to Date: 195.8 lbs
Average Pounds Lost per Week: 2.33 lbs/week

Comments
This will be the last "Wednesday Weekly Trend and Bodyweight Update". I will still track Bodyweight going forward, though I will switch from Bodyweight Trend, which is an exponential moving average; to Bodyweight Average, which is a four day rolling average. A rolling average is better suited to tracking numbers that are largely stable, which I expect Bodyweight to be over this coming Winter. I will report on this information once a week, on Sunday in a newly formatted update which will be more comprehensive than my individual Sunday LBM, Monday Omron BFC, Wednesday Bodyweight, and Saturday Body Measurements updates.

Over the past 84 weeks, I have most closely tracked my Bodyweight and Bodyweight Trend, while also paying attention to BFC and LBM as my main metrics. For people who are seriously obese, bodyweight is actually a good metric to track. Losing bodyweight means losing fat. It also means some LBM losses, but this is inevitable anyway.

Body Fat Composition is still the king of metrics, and should be the primary focus for people who are fit, overweight, or slightly obese. As I have shifted into the overweight category, and with the upcoming changes in my diet and exercise regimen; I need to shift focus from Bodyweight to BFC. My new Sunday Update will do just that. Anyway, on with the usual Wednesday update....

Wow! Bodyweight Trend dropped 4.8 pounds this past week, while Bodyweight dropped 11.0 pounds. This is what can happen when going from a highly carbed-up, water-flush state, to serious ketosis by way of a restricted calorie, protein-sparing, moderated fast.

Notice that I lost most of that weight over four days, which is how fast one can drop the water. Since then, I have increased calories and carbs a bit with some stabilization. Going forward I should see slow and steady losses. I am hoping for around 2 pounds per week, but I'm not sure I can pull that off. Right now I am stuck on an obvious plateau, which I hope to break through in the next day or so.

Benchmark Approacheth! The 234.1 Pound Bodyweight Trend Benchmark is coming up soon. This represents 45% of my original Bodyweight lost, and is one of my major benchmarks. I should hit it within the next week if all goes well.

Bodyweight, Trend, and 7-Day Loss Rate for the Past Week
The Trend listed below is an exponential moving average with 10% smoothing. It tends to overstate current bodyweight as it lags behind the real data, but it smooths out erratic bodyweight readings and shows the actual bodyweight loss rate over time. An explanation of the "Trend" calculation's utility may be found in my previous post, "Turning Bodyweight Into A Semi-Useful Metric" (WFS).

_Date______Bodyweight_____Trend_____7 Day Loss Rate
12/05/12_____241.6 lbs_____241.5 lbs_____-1.0 Lbs/Wk
12/06/12_____239.6 lbs_____241.3 lbs_____-0.8 Lbs/Wk
12/07/12_____237.0 lbs_____240.9 lbs_____-1.1 Lbs/Wk
12/08/12_____233.4 lbs_____240.1 lbs_____-1.5 Lbs/Wk
12/09/12_____230.6 lbs_____239.1 lbs_____-2.3 Lbs/Wk
12/10/12_____230.6 lbs_____238.2 lbs_____-3.1 Lbs/Wk
12/11/12_____229.8 lbs_____237.4 lbs_____-4.1 Lbs/Wk
12/12/12_____230.6 lbs_____236.7 lbs_____-4.8 Lbs/Wk
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Old 12-12-2012, 07:49 AM   #1320
Meghan Reid
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Re: PaleoZone vs Morbid Obesity: An Odyssey

I forget if I or someone else has nagged you about this. WHEN do we get to see pictures???
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